A big year for corn?
Large acreage in 2025 is one factor that could impact the corn market.
Every other year, we have a bigger corn year in the U.S. and this is the year. The trendline yield the market is going to look at is 183.5 and it is difficult to get super bearish at this point, according to Luke Williams with Advance Trading Inc.
The soybean/corn ratio number is now down to 2.2. Numbers around 2.0 to 2.2 say to plant corn and up to 2.5 says to plant beans.
Cost is expected to be more of a deciding factor this year compared to other years when it comes to raising corn or beans.
“Weather still does make a difference,” explained Williams. “It is something the trade is obviously looking at.”
Last year, soybeans tried to rally during a planting delay but dropped in the summer. Now, we have been seeing an increase in bean prices.
“We always look at China, especially when it comes to soybeans,” notes Williams.
The market is nervous if we don’t have China due to trade issues. We just can’t slow down South America but one good thing for the bean market is that the South American harvest is behind schedule. Argentina is dealing with a decent drought but not what it was two years ago.
“They are down about 10 percent in weekly crop ratings.”
Brazil is the cheapest source of soybeans today and China has shifted its buying there. Williams wonders if China will come to the U.S. with the Brazilian delays.
Williams spoke to a group of farmers during the Brandt Professional Agriculture market meeting held at the Indian Creek Country Club in Fairbury last week.
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