Grain acres may shift in '25

Early indications are that U.S. farmers will increase planted grain acres this year despite low prices, according to a survey by Farm Futures magazine, a Farm Progress publication.

In the survey that closed in late December, farmers in major corn-producing states seem swayed by an ongoing corn rally. However, more than half of the responding farmers plan no change in their crop mix.

“In light of the corn market’s rally to six-month highs in late 2024 and early 2025, it makes sense that many farmers in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and other top producing states plan to ramp up corn plantings this year,” said Senior Editor Bruce Blythe.

Overall, the 700-plus farmers who responded to the survey plan to slightly increase corn acres and significantly increase soybean plantings.

Two key factors could upend those December plans:

• Soybean futures prices. “A key question for the grain markets in coming months is whether soybean acres increase or decrease, given the outlook for heavy global supplies and weak prices,” Blythe said.

• 
  

• U.S. trade and farm policy. “Farmers will have some time to react to the incoming Trump Administration, weather patterns, price trends, and much more before planters start to roll this spring,” Senior Editor Ben Potter noted.

  
  

With a focus on grain production, Farm Futures serves large-scale farm operators across the country with business-oriented content. One of the services that Farm Futures provides to its market-oriented farmer audience is regular surveys to help them adjust production direction to maximize profit.

“Our survey results do hold some hints that they are already considering some changes for 2025,” said Potter.

One respondent was blunt on that point: In explaining any rotation decisions, the farmer wrote, “make possible in-season changes closer to planting time.”

In addition, farmers voiced concern on prices and Farm Bill needs. Of the nearly 300 write-in comments, the predominant calls were for price protection, crop insurance, and a better safety net.

That farmers are holding out for better prices is evident in their marketing activity – or lack thereof. Many are still holding 2024 bushels. A few even have unsold bushels from 2023.

• About 48% of their 2024 corn and soybean crops aren’t sold.

  
  

• Of their 2023 crops, responding farmers reported storing about 8% of their corn, 5% of their soybean production and 3% of their wheat.

  
  

Given the opportunity, farmers pluck profit from the market anytime prices prove profitable.

• Nearly 40% reported that they hedged crops in the past two or more years before they were harvested. But that break-even line so far has eluded many farmers seeking profitable price opportunities for 2025.

  
  

• Only 7% believe they forward priced enough 2025 production to make a profit.

  
  

Farm Futures will survey farmers again in March.