View from the Cab: Estimate time

By Kent Casson

As we get set to change the calendar to April, it is the time of year when we hear all about acreage estimates for the coming growing season.

USDA releases its highly-anticipated predictions for spring planting this week and many companies out there have come up with their own predictions for crops in 2025.

AgMarket.net released information the other day, announcing they believe growers will “overwhelmingly” increase corn acres this year since soybeans lack profitability.

“One of the main reasons for that decision is producers lamenting how they can’t make money with $10 soybeans,” said AgMarket.net co-founder Matt Bennett in a news release. “That being said, the company feels confident we could come in above the acreage estimate two years ago of 94.6 million acres and soybeans likely come in substantially lower than last year’s 87 million acres as well.”

With profitability for wheat also questioned, AgMarket.net does not believe the all-wheat acreage number will approach a number close to 50 million acres, despite spring wheat acres holding strong.

For its estimates, the company used direct farmer engagement, economic analysis, historical data and trends. Spring crop insurance prices were also factored in to the estimates.

“Spring insurance price for corn is a nickel above one year ago while the soybean price is $1 below one year ago,” adds Bennett.

Bennett notes that insurance guarantees on corn are better than what they would be for soybeans relative to production costs. This is another factor which could push growers to stick with their corn rotation, even in the face of potential dry weather.

Estimates from AgMarket.net for 2025 look like this (in million acres): corn at 95.39, soybeans 82.75 and all wheat at 47.82. This compares to the USDA outlook forum numbers of 94, 84 and 47, respectively. Last year’s USDA numbers were 90.59, 87.05 and 46.08 for the same crops.

AgMarket.net is the farm division of John Stewart & Associates.

April traditionally marks the start of spring planting in Central Illinois, although some shorter-term weather forecasts predict a wet month while dryness could set in later in the growing season. Time will tell.