View from the Cab: Prepare for volatility

By Kent Casson

Proper marketing of grain will be the key to success for many growers in 2025.

Since we’ve seen a rally in the bean market, many are wondering how we prepare for more rallies. J.J. Keske with Advance Trading Inc. says to not let fear of mistakes stop you from pulling the trigger on sales.

I listened to Keske speak alongside Luke Williams during an informational ag meeting hosted by Brandt Professional Agriculture earlier this month in Fairbury.

Farmers are encouraged to stay consistent and figure out where that break-even level is.

“Take advantage of volatility we see throughout the year,” explained Keske. “It’s a more volatile market every year.”

Producers should be prepared for tariffs in the rest of the world and other factors which may arise. Using options provides flexibility and takes some of the emotion out of marketing grain. The key is trying to pick the top while staying away from the bottom, though this can be tough to do.

“We like to use that summer volatility to really move and manage those options,” added Keske.

Make sure your price floor is in a good spot even if you are not ready to make a sale. This time of the year, Keske likes to be 30 percent sold with the rest covered in put options. During the growing season, farmers could take off some puts and replace them with sales for a summertime rally.

Keske would not be surprised if soybean prices start with a 9 come fall since there are plenty of soybeans out there.

Last year, the highest corn price was set on the first trading day of the year in January. We tried to hit that number again with a slight planting delay but 40 percent of the U.S. corn crop was planted in about a week.

“We saw demand come back and funds started to reverse their position,” said Williams.

The national yield was reduced in January and now we are down in the 1.5-billion-bushel carryout area. The “I” states saw major yield reductions last year and on the demand side, we saw tremendous buying from Mexico.

China typically impacts the soybean market more but could be a big factor for the corn market if they come in and buy grain after trade negotiations.

These are just several factors to keep watching as we soon enter another growing season.